Wargame -- Participant Update

1 OCTOBER 2026

BRITAIN 2036

Every round opens with an update — Washington sets a deadline, and every team sees the same update.
Teams choose roles and make moves — Pick a spokesperson and a lead negotiator, then make up to three major moves.
House team plays everyone else — The house team answers as the EU, the Bank of England, the markets and the public.
One jump forward in time — Round 1 covers the first month. Round 2 covers the six months after it.

“Statement on 10 March: what we will do at midnight on 4 April, and what we ask in return”
“Deal form signed by both sides: 5,000 staff move to benefit claims for 12 weeks”
“We commit £2 billion from 1 May, on condition the other side signs by 20 March”

American AI runs the British state — Meridian's agents assess benefits, triage NHS patients, check tax and schedule court hearings.
Lost decade for the economy — Growth has averaged 1% a year, unemployment is 8.5% and debt is 130% of national income.
Two laws collide — Britain demands inspection of Meridian's AI by 4 April. American law makes handing it over a crime.
1.8 million wait for Transition Income — First payments to displaced workers are due on 30 April, part funded by a new levy on AI firms.

Machines make the daily decisions — AI agents set benefit awards for nine million people and triage patients across England.
American firms own the machines — Most of Britain's AI runs on American models in American-owned data centres.
Washington controls the supply — It can suspend the status that gives Britain new American models and chips.

3/4 — of Britain's AI computing capacity is in American-owned or leased data centres
9 million — people have benefit claims assessed by Meridian's agents
370,000 — civil servants, down from 558,000 in 2026

““Suspend the inspection requirement and the levy by midnight on 4 April, or lose American AI.””

The White House, 5 March 2036

THREE AMERICAN PENALTIES — No frontier AI for public bodies, no new models or chips, and 25% tariffs on British goods from 1 May.
REGULATOR WILL ENFORCE — The AI Safety Commission will act against any provider that has not complied by the deadline.
BEIJING OFFERS TO STEP IN — China's embassy says Chinese AI firms can keep services running on systems Britain could inspect in full.
UNIONS CALL A NATIONAL MARCH — The Workers' Federation will oppose any deal that scraps the levy, and marches on Saturday.
STERLING FALLS 3% — Markets fell when Asia opened. The Prime Minister speaks to the House of Commons at 12:30.

AI SAFETY COMMISSION — Independent regulator created by the Act; Can fine up to 10% of worldwide revenue; Will enforce at midnight on 4 April
EUROPEAN COMMISSION AND EU GOVERNMENTS — Building public AI computing centres; Under American pressure on digital rules; Watching what Britain does
BANK OF ENGLAND AND THE FINANCIAL MARKETS — Sterling fell 3% on 5 March; Public debt is 130% of national income
PARLIAMENT — Government majority of 18; Labour MPs are divided; Backbench MPs of every party
NHS BODIES, COUNCILS AND CHARITIES — Triage and housing run on Meridian; Human staff are the fallback
OTHER AMERICAN AI COMPANIES — Two more firms at the frontier; Bound by the same American law; Would share the levy with Meridian
THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC — Trust is at a record low; Jobs and AI top voters' concerns; Young people are angriest
RUSSIA AND OTHER GOVERNMENTS — Russia spreads fake videos to divide; Allies and the Gulf states are watching

HM Government — Can change the law, spend and direct the regulator. Cannot bind Washington or Meridian. (A Commons majority of 18, the Treasury and the civil service. Almost no spare money.)
Reform UK — Can force Commons votes and rally voters. Cannot make policy from opposition. (A poll lead at about 31%, confidence votes, the media, rallies and ties to Washington.)
Washington — Can cut off American AI and impose tariffs. Cannot change British law. (Control of Britain's trusted partner status, export law and tariffs on British goods.)
Beijing — Can offer Chinese AI, trade and investment. Cannot lift Britain's 2031 ban. (Lantern's open models, chips and engineers, plus batteries and rare earths Britain buys.)
Meridian — Can stay in or leave public services. Cannot share model weights without a US licence. (The AI behind benefits, NHS triage, tax checks and courts, and 4,500 British jobs.)
British Business Council — Can speak, lobby and invest for business. Has influence but no formal power. (Six big members, from Kingsway Bank to 400,000 small firms, divided on a deal.)
Workers' Federation — Can call strikes, marches and boycotts. Cannot make law or policy. (5.9 million members, including most civil service, NHS and council staff.)

5 MARCH 2036

Washington gives Britain until midnight on 4 April to suspend inspection and the levy.
The AI Safety Commission says it will enforce the Act at the deadline.
China's embassy offers AI systems Britain could inspect in full.
The Workers' Federation calls a national march for Saturday.
Sterling falls 3%, and the Prime Minister speaks to the Commons at 12:30.